Potential loss of seat looms

Posted 11/12/15

The 2020 Census may seem distant. But it could have major implications for the Ocean State.

A recent analysis undertaken through the Carolina Population Center (CPC) at the University of North …

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Potential loss of seat looms

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The 2020 Census may seem distant. But it could have major implications for the Ocean State.

A recent analysis undertaken through the Carolina Population Center (CPC) at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill has found that, based on current trends, Rhode Island is likely to lose one of its two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As a result, in 2022, the state would elect a single congressman.

The size of the House has for many years been capped at 435 members, with seats to be apportioned among the states based on each decade’s census.

The CPC’s analysis involved four scenarios, with Rhode Island losing a seat in three of the four considered. The study points to a broader trend in which the nation’s population is shifting from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West and indicates seven other states – Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – are also projected to lose a seat. Most likely to gain seats are Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Virginia, while Arizona, California, Colorado and Oregon may also see an increased congressional delegation.

The loss of a seat in the U.S. House would be a historic blow to Rhode Island, which has held at least two seats since the early days of the republic. The state would, of course, retain its two U.S. Senate seats, but it would join the likes of Alaska, Delaware, Vermont, Montana and Wyoming in sending just three representatives to Congress.

The political fallout locally would be very significant. Neither of the two current congressmen, James Langevin and David Cicilline, has shown any sign of stepping away, and both have proven formidable at the ballot box. U.S. Senators Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse similarly seem highly secure in their positions, leaving no obvious upward avenue for either of the current representatives.

For Rhode Island Democrats, a primary contest between the two high-profile leaders could prove awkward and painful. For the state’s Republicans, it may present a unique opportunity – although the party would still face an uphill fight.

Of course, a great deal can happen between now and 2022. And what is clearly of far greater concern is the potential diminishing of the Ocean State’s voice in the nation’s capital.

The members of our current delegation to the U.S. Capitol have carved out a considerable role in the nation’s affairs, from foreign policy and military affairs to cybersecurity and economic matters. They have accrued a significant degree of seniority and influence, which cannot help but benefit the state. Decreasing that presence by a full quarter would certainly be a blow.

There’s still hope we can maintain its second congressional seat. While the impacts of national population trends are largely beyond our control, perhaps efforts to revitalize infrastructure, spur economic growth and forge a 21st-century identity for Rhode Island can help us compete regionally, draw new residents and businesses, and keep those we already have. We have time – but the window is closing.

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  • Drekem12345

    Neither of the two current congressmen, James Langevin and David Cicilline, has shown any sign of stepping away, and both have proven formidable at the ballot box. U.S. Senators Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse similarly seem highly secure in their positions, leaving no obvious upward avenue for either of the current representatives.

    Thursday, December 31, 2015 Report this